Trade index shows little change
July 16, 2009,
I-Net Bridge
THE South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (SACCI’s) trade activity index , which
reflects the survey on current trade conditions, remained virtually unchanged at 39 last month
after measuring 40 in May. Trade conditions remain depressed and in negative territory — below 50
index points. However, current levels do point to a gradual recovery in the index from the low of
32 in April, the SACCI said. The sales and new orders sub- components were slightly down on May
levels and remained in negative territory. The sub-index on current sales volumes, which gained 15
points in May , lost three index points last month to measure 42 points.
The new orders sub-index, which gained 9 points in May , declined 4 points to 34 last month.
Supplier deliveries improved from 38 to 41 last month, while backlogs rose marginally. Selling
prices rose marginally last month from 49 to 50 while the input price index increased by 6 points
to 62. Inflationary pressures do nonetheless appear to be contained as prices of imported producer
goods declined nearly 17% in May and prices of locally produced goods 3% in May.
Respondents were more optimistic in their six-month outlook and the trade expectations index
(TEI) was higher at 49 last month compared with 46 in May. The TEI has been on an upward trend
since April. Sales expectations improved; the subindex was 6 points up on the May level of 50 and
well into positive territory. Expectations for new orders also improved by six index points to 53
in May while prospects for supplier deliveries gained 5 index points.
“There is a more positive outlook for most aspects of trade conditions six months hence.
Inflationary expectations for the next six months (scope of survey) were lower and the indices on
expected input and sales prices declined by five and one point respectively last month . “
Notwithstanding higher expectations on inflation in the May survey, inflationary expectations
receded somewhat in the June survey. The direction of inflation, however, seems uncertain given
some administered price shocks announced last month.
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